What to do? Happy Fourth Anniversary!

The traditional 4th anniversary present is linen. What did we get?

In casual conversations with friends both online and in person; watching and reading the news. The message is largely the same—the invasion of Iraq was a tragic mistake. I’m inclined to agree. Prior to us beginning the war, I did my civic duty and called the White House to say as much (you can too). I thought then, as I do now, that a doctrine of preemptive warfare was a dark and dangerous road to tread, the long-term consequences of which would be hard to predict.

I had no illusions then that my phone call or the email that I sent later that same day would be given much thought. After all, by that point, there was near-unanimous support in Congress for invading Iraq.

Four years later, as the President points to progress and asks for patience, Americans look back on this day with regret. This was a bad marriage and a lot of people wish they could just annul it. Politicians scramble to deal with this turn of events. The ones running for the ’08 elections have all kinds of responses: “I told you so,” “My vote was a mistake,” “I won’t apologize for my vote, but when you elect me, I’ll end the war,” and “We have to prevail” are the basic answers you’ll get from the front runners. I'll give former Senator Edwards credit: his use of the "I must have been drunk when I married her" approach is certainly different.

I’ve never been a fan of the popular accusation that the Democrats are “Invested in defeat”—it sounds too much like a carefully crafted sound bite, not unlike “cut and run” that worked so successfully for so long, and it intentionally ignores the possibility that those who disagree with current strategies might actually think that they have a superior one. I also find the “stay the course” mantra that’s used like a whip to beat the Republicans with to be a bit simplistic, intentionally glossing over any change in strategy that doesn't involve troop withdrawals. That said, what to do about Iraq seems to be the number one political question of the day.

It’s a tough political nut to crack, that’s for sure. Opinion polls suggest that Americans think that the war was a mistake, but aren’t so sure about withdrawing troops. For example:

"Do you think the United States can win or cannot win the war in
Iraq?"

Can Win 46%
Cannot Win 46%
Unsure 8%

"Which of the following comes closest to your view? The U.S. should immediately begin to withdraw all its troops from Iraq. The U.S. should withdraw all its troops from Iraq within a year. The U.S. should keep its troops in Iraq as long as is needed to turn control over to the Iraqi government."

Withdraw Now 21%
Withdraw Within Year 37%
Stay as Long As Needed 39%
Unsure 4%

"Do you think Congress should allow the government to
spend money to send additional troops to Iraq, or do you think Congress should vote to block the government from spending money to send additional troops to Iraq?"

Allow 43%
Block 52%
Unsure 6%

What’s a politician supposed to do with that?

Then there’s the disturbing report that although Saddam’s statue slayer now thinks we’re worse than Saddam ever was, most Iraqi’s disagree, actually seeming to have hope for the future of their country, and don’t believe they’re embroiled in a civil war.

The polls seem to pointing in all kinds of directions. Who should the politician listen to? What should s/he do?

Well, there’s always the “right thing.” Then again, what “the right thing” is really is the question.
For me, I can only look at history. In the ‘80’s the U.S. supported the Mujahideen in Afghanistan during their struggle with the Soviets. When the Soviets gave up after 10 yrs of strife, they left Afghanistan in shambles. With our common enemy out of the way, the U.S. cut off support for the Mujahideen and left them to sort out their political problems on their own. A decade later, the Taliban had taken over the country and Al Qaeda had a powerful recruiting tool.

Will the same thing happen in Iraq if we cut off support there? Who knows?

Heck of an anniversary.